VILNIUS, May 4 (Reuters) - When the head of the European
Parliament visited Lithuania last month to drum up support for
EU membership at a referendum in May, little more than a third
of the Baltic state's lawmakers bothered to turn up to hear
him.
Similar apathy among the country's 3.5 million voters in
the May 10-11 referendum could torpedo Lithuania's plans to
join the EU next year and have a knock-on effect in other
former communist states still to vote on joining the bloc.
There is real concern that less than half the electorate
will turn up to vote, rendering the referendum invalid.
Many Lithuanians are suffering from political fatigue
after more than a decade of post-Soviet reforms that have
propelled the country to the doorstep of the EU and NATO.
The absence of any organised opposition to the EU has left
a dull, one-sided public debate, and even the recently
introduced cut-price "Eurobeer" has failed to create much
cheer.
"Many see EU entry as an arranged marriage -- there is no
love, no passion," said Baltic political expert Artis Pabriks.
"If Lithuania votes 'No', it could cause chaos in Europe."
Among the 10 EU candidates, Slovenia, Hungary and the
small Mediterranean island of Malta have already voted to join
the EU next May, though Hungary's turnout was far lower than
expected.
A fourth thumbs-up would help the pro-EU camp gather steam
in the remaining candidates, especially Lithuania's more
eurosceptic Baltic neighbours Latvia and Estonia.
Leaders in the closely integrated Baltic region hope a
Lithuanian 'Yes' vote would push undecided voters in the other
two countries to support EU entry and avoid an awkward split.
The biggest EU candidate, Poland, votes next month, also
needing a 50 percent turnout to make the referendum binding.
Otherwise EU membership would lie in the hands of the country's
fractious parliament.
PROVINCIAL PLACE
Latest polls show 65 percent of Lithuanians back EU entry,
with opposition just above 13 percent and the rest undecided.
Pollsters say there are no reliable turnout forecasts but
expect it to be close to the 53 percent level at January's
presidential run-off when rightist Rolandas Paksas stunned
pundits by ousting popular incumbent Valdas Adamkus.
Darius Pocius, a middle-aged tax collector, says he will
vote 'Yes', but fears not enough people would bother to vote.
"Lithuania is a totally provincial place," Pocius said.
"We are such a small country and that's why we're joining the
EU, to be something and not be stuck in the middle of nowhere."
Many Lithuanians point proudly to a small pyramid in a
forest east of Vilnius that marks Europe's geographical centre.
But others note this does not bring them any closer to the EU's
political heart, 1,400 km (870 miles) to the west in Brussels.
As in most of the ex-Soviet satellites queuing to join the
EU, Lithuanians are split between younger, urban 'haves', who
stand to gain most from Brussels and elderly, rural 'have
nots', who see few benefits in joining a remote and faceless
Union.
The political elite and city slickers talk of the benefits
of EU political and economic integration, with more jobs,
better facilities, travel and education opportunities. But many
of those left behind by the post-Soviet reforms are less
convinced.
"My opinion doesn't mean a damn thing -- this was all
decided long ago by the people in power," said Albinas, who
owns a tiny potato farm close to the eastern border with
Belarus.
"I'm a nobody, and my song has already been sung," he
said, explaining why he would not vote.
DESPAIR
Albinas has seen little of the economic miracle that has
turned the Baltic laggard into a "star performer" in the words
of the International Monetary Fund. The economy grew by 6.7
percent in 2002 despite a global downturn. Albinas' 12-
year-old daughter suggested that the EU could bring
opportunities for travel, study and work, but Albinas scoffed
at the idea.
"You need money to travel, but you don't have any," he
said.
Gediminas Kirkilas, head of parliament's foreign affairs
committee, despairs at such attitudes, saying many Lithuanians
fail to realise that a 'No' vote will cost them dearly.
"Lithuania's economy, manufacturing and trade are already
strongly integrated into the EU due to the belief that
Lithuania will become a member state and adopt EU market
rules," he said.
"Economists say that, if we don't join the EU, we'll lose
10 billion litas ($3.17 billion) in GDP growth annually."
Prime Minister Algirdas Brazauskas has tried to drive home a
simpler message, saying a 'Yes' vote would mean that "for at
least 30 years to come everything will be okay in Lithuania."
The ruling leftist coalition says there is no 'Plan B',
meaning a 'No' or invalid vote would force Lithuania to wait
until 2007 for a second chance to join the EU along with
Romania and Bulgaria.
But Albinas said that would change nothing for him.
"We drink our moonshine and smoke our contraband
cigarettes, and that's enough for us."