Various scenarios are mentioned, in particular the widely discussed scenario of a full-scale military operation with the capture of either a large part of Ukraine or the whole country.
Western politicians and experts are actively discussing this scenario. There is talk of it happening in the coming weeks, or even days.
How realistic is such an invasion, and what will most likely happen?
In short, our conclusions are the following:
1. A full-scale invasion capturing most or all of Ukraine in the near future seems unlikely.
2. There are other threatening scenarios that may materialize.
3. Ukraine must remain calm and actively prepare for the defense of the country in any case.
The current situation is very complex and extremely dynamic. Every day there is new data that impacts the forecast. Therefore, we are ready to update our position in the near future, should new data emerge.
Let’s try to understand what’s happening in detail:
How realistic is the scenario of a full-scale offensive into all or most of Ukraine in the near future?
At the moment, there are not enough Russian troops on Ukraine’s borders and no fully formed military groups needed to conduct a strategic offensive against Ukraine.
According to our estimates, supported by many of the indicators below, a large-scale general military operation can’t take place for at least the next two or three weeks.
As of Jan. 23, we do not observe the required formation of several hundred thousand troops, not only on the border with Ukraine, but also on Russian territory behind the front line.
Besides, we do not see the creation of strategic reserve units, nor the mobilization of the necessary connections and units on the basis of the centers for mobilization deployment.
Russian troops move mainly as battalion tactical groups (mechanized, tank and airborne troops) and tactical groups (artillery, multiple launch missile systems).
Russia hasn’t completed the formation of groups of troops in operational areas. It also hasn’t established and tested its wartime administration system.
If Russia was conducting preparations for a large-scale invasion, it would have been much more noticeable.
Therefore, what we currently have is the military threat posed by about 127,000 Russian servicemen along Ukraine’s borders, in the occupied territories of eastern Ukraine, and in Crimea. This number has not increased since April, and is not enough for a full-scale offensive.
At the same time, Russia could add more troops near Ukraine’s borders by:
1. assembling new formations and units in the Southern and Western military districts of Russia;
2. transferring troops to Belarus for exercises;
3. deploying land forces, the Navy and the airborne forces to military training grounds near the border of Ukraine and in occupied Crimea;
4. increasing the number of Russian troops 150-300 kilometers away from the state border of Ukraine.
The number of Russian troops along the borders can be significantly increased by transferring units and groups of constant combat readiness, which have the appropriate combat experience and the necessary skills to act in unfamiliar territories. But this also takes some time.
At the same time, according to available information, Russia’s National Guard units conducted a series of combat training in Belarus and occupied Crimea throughout 2021.
This may indicate Russia’s preparation for actions in the occupied territories, especially in eastern Ukraine. Similarly, active measures are being taken to accumulate stocks of food, fuels and lubricants, and other material resources for the Russian army.
One of the indicators of Russia’s preparation for an attack is the number of mobile hospitals being deployed, and the speed of staffing medical units. At present, there is no evidence of the readiness of medical infrastructure to participate in a possible operation by the Russian armed forces.
https://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/...
https://kyivindependent.com/na...
