In the run-up to the national elections, Estonia’s political parties are on a look-out for new items for their agendas. Commendably, defence policy is not overlooked in the political debate. Equally commendably, parties are assuming positions congruent with their political ideologies: the liberals are advocating gradual transition to all-volunteer force format (often wrongly termed as “professional force”), while the conservatives are defending the “two-tier” format (or mix of full-time volunteers and conscripts) currently in place. Whatever the practical outcome of this debate, the Estonian society will benefit if this sensitive issue will have been discussed thoroughly and intelligently. The last thing you want to do is to imitate what others (Sweden, Germany, Lithuania etc.) do without understanding your own aims, needs and assumptions – this would be simply a counter-productive “strategic parroting”.
There are signs, however, that this debate is about to be shaped by populist clichés and ideological grand-standing (continuing in a “business as usual” manner afterwards) rather than by enlightened arguments. One such a cliché thrown around (and readily accepted by less open-minded members of the Estonian public) is the notion that Latvia and Lithuania committed a huge mistake by switching to all-volunteer force format. For a start, you cannot know it until the model is tested in practice by war – a contingency which tends to brutally expose all the faulty or naïve strategic assumptions, systemic deficiencies and organisational failures. Without such a test, the entire discussion is purely theoretical. It is just a matter of mastery of words and arguments in making comparisons which determines if someone is seen as mistaken or not.
Second, one has to understand that different approaches to force format can be (and usually are) based on a different reading of the strategic environment, future uncertainties, societal preferences and utility of military force. Latvia and Lithuania opted for what is more in line with their reading and understanding of how they fit into the collective defence system of the Alliance or should manage various security risks, which does not make the choice for an all-volunteer force model right or wrong in itself. It just stems from a different set of assumptions than those on the basis of which Estonia’s defence system is constructed.
And, third, it is very easy to confuse complaints about the organisational difficulties of switching to the all-volunteer force with the perception of the model’s utter failure. Persistent whinging from some Lithuanian politicians, for example, is a case in point (and is a factor reinforcing the view of some Estonian counterparts that it was a wrong thing to do altogether). Having miserably failed in their duty to ensure adequate funding for defence in the times of economic hardship, these politicians are now lashing around blaming earlier decisions rather than own failures. And, needless to say, they also get distracted from ensuring that the new model works properly.
At least in Lithuania, mistakes in transition were abundant. First and foremost, the timing was adjusted to an electoral cycle rather than organisation’s readiness. Thus, transition period, during which intensive across-the-board preparations are made, was minimal. As a result, for instance, the capacity which is so crucial to any all-volunteer force – that of attracting and recruiting suitable cadre – was and remains abysmal. It just does not fit the purpose once the coercive means of access to the “labour force” in the form of conscription has been taken away. Adjustment of personnel structure as well as various organisational processes and functions (especially personnel management) is severely lagging. All this is made even more difficult when “easy money” of boom years is not available to throw at the transition problems. Furthermore, political consensus behind the underlying strategic assumptions proves to have been rather feeble, which always constitutes an obstacle to the continuity of the chosen defence policy course. The Lithuanian ruling conservatives are in two minds about the all-volunteer force, while the liberals who also participate in the coalition warned against returning to conscription. This bodes ill for the stability of a ship called “defence” even without the funding problems factored in.
Maybe, at some point, we will have to go back to conscription, when we start observing that our security environment took a dramatic turn for a worse (or, as it may happen, financial stranglehold on defence becomes a permanent condition – but this would qualify as deliberate sabotage of national security). This is the option that every nation which switched to all-volunteer force format retained in its law books. For the time being, and as long as their strategic assumptions hold, the Lithuanians and Latvians have to focus on improving the format they chose on a basis of their evolving worldview and assessments.
The important consequence is that a set of issues and challenges present in the Latvian or Lithuanian armed forces is steadily getting very different from what the Estonian Defence Forces are confronted with. With time, comparing them will turn into even more populist and futile exercise of comparing apples and oranges. It would be much more productive to focus the debate on what Estonia feels, wants, needs, is comfortable with and can realistically get with its resources, instead of employing hubristic clichés about its neighbours as a part of some superficial political debate.
(http://blog.icds.ee/article/ch... )