Humankind customarily greets the new year, thankful for the good that the old had brought, preparing for the new challenges ahead. Politicians of all stripes emphasize successes, downplay failures, and more often than not avoid dwelling on persistent and pressing concerns that their administration has been unable to solve.

Today’s democratic governments do indeed seek re-election through promises and propaganda, rather than actually delivering on them. Propaganda often creates an illusion of prosperity, and many a pol is more than willing to claim credit for the hard work of his predecessors. Prosperity itself is generally beyond the control of any one single state - increasing globalization and interdependency economically suggests that it would be foolish to claim otherwise. Governments and their leaders do have control over their inner policies and external interaction, often that is where they direct the attention of the citizen-voter.

In Estonia’s case, 2002 can be claimed to have been, as Frank Sinatra would have crooned, generally a very good year. Even a change in government in January did not derail long-term goals. Mart Laar’s coalition, the longest serving government since regaining independence crumbled, to be replaced by Siim Kallas and his Reform-led new coalition, necessarily dependent on Edgar Savisaar and his Centre party. Nevertheless, the policies and goals established by Laar’s (and earlier) governments, pushed onto the international stage and championed by former President Lennart Meri, were achieved. Invitations to join NATO and EU conclusively prove that Estonia is seen as an equal internationally.

That does not mean that all is well at home. Even though Estonia and Estonians have taken great strides in the last dozen years, shaking off most of the lingering effects of the Soviet era, much remains to be done. The primary future concern, is, well, who will be there in the future to reap the harvest sown by today’s young, eager, westernized entrepreneurs and innovators?

For all the Information Technology advances, for all the high and laudable claims of being among the least corrupt of European nations, for all the young bright people conversant in English and the languages of diplomacy and commerce, there is a dark side. Estonians are putting advancement before family, much like it is done in the west.

Estonian president Arnold Rüütel emphatically underscored this point in his New Year’s Address to the nation. He is not the first to do so - Meri continually expressed his concern, the Pro Patria governments also tried to encourage a natural increase in population.

Rüütel’s speech was broadcast live to the nation - and hopefully many heard his concerns. After touching on all the positive achievements of last year, Rüütel became serious. He noted that Estonia’s integration into Europe has demanded from all of her people great material sacrifices and spiritual effort. Compromises made will not hurt the nation’s dignity, and with the EU referendum slated for September, Estonians retain the right to determine their own future. But no concern is greater than that of demographics.

Estonia’s small population of @1.4 million is declining. If nothing changes, “in just a couple of decades the number of Estonians seeing the New Year in will be one-fifth less than today”, said Rüütel.

Statistics from the Social Welfare Ministry confirm the point. Estonia registered 16 live births per 1,000 people in the 1980’s - under Soviet rule. In 2001, that number had almost halved - just 8.7 births per 1,000.

Piret Laur of the World Health Organization’s Estonian office knows the reason - women “are postponing having children to look after their education and careers”. In the 1980’s the average Estonian woman had her first child when she was 20 (!!). With perestroika and glasnost, travel opportunities to Estonia grew: many Estonians living in the West noticed how young families were then.

In contrast, Estonians who fled communism to the west had their children later in life, ensuring financial security first. It was - and to a degree still is - not uncommon for many in the Estonian-Canadian society to have had their first child in their mid to late 30’s. Estonians back home are following this pattern. 2001 statistics show that the average age of an Estonian woman having her first child had risen to 28.

Understandably, the new Estonian families are thus going to be smaller as well. By starting later, juggling career and family, big families, just as in Canada, are a thing of the past. Estonia’s economic success is partly to blame.

Rüütel expressed as well in his speech the hope that people’s mental and physical health become a collective focus, more than it has up to now. Health issues have long been a concern - by focusing on the individual, societal issues get overshadowed. Rüütel also emphasized the importance of education - “Estonia’s sustainability is not conceivable if not supported by free access to education for all”.

All of these goals are for naught if the population dwindles. Canada makes up for its negative natural population increase by encouraging immigration. And has done so for decades. This is simply not the answer for a small nation like Estonia, that must retain its distinctiveness through natural increase through a growth in native speakers.

Estonia’s future is dependent on her people going forth and multiplying. With a mind to the future, drawing from the strength and spirit of our ancestors, to ensure continuation of the nation, is what young Estonians of child-bearing age must heed. The government’s role in providing support is not inconsequential, and with a national election coming in March, financial support, encouragement for families, should be high on the priority list of every voter, candidate and party.

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