It is hard to explain to a North American how a disgraced politician, once forced to resign because of a taping scandal, could still be viewed by many voters eight years after his scandalous resignation as the man most suited to lead a government.

But that is precisely what Estonian voters did last Sunday, when Edgar Savisaar and his Center party garnered the most votes given to any party, and tied with the brand-new, politically unproven Res Publica party for most seats in the Riigikogu, Estonia’s parliament, with 28.

The strength of Res Publica’s showing, however, indicates that Savisaar’s dream of returning to the Prime Minister’s position, one he held during Soviet times until the first free Estonian elections (1990-1992) will most likely be dashed. The Center Party reveived the most votes by the scantiest of margins - less than a full percentage point more than Res Publica. More important, centre-right parties won 60 of the 101 seats in an election that was widely seen as Savisaar against the rest. 75% of voters did not wish to have Savisaar govern. Rather convinciong numbers in any democracy; save perhaps, Canada, where a certain politician that truly speaks out of the side of his mouth has been ignoring the wishes of the country for years, and has never gained even a 50% majority.

The comparison with Canada is apt, as Estonia’s modified d’Hondt electoral system needs an overhaul. Unfortunately, in this year’s election many deserving, solid candidates fell short of a parliament seat, solely because they were lower on the party slate hierarchy than the number of mandates that the party received by allocation. Others, with a dubious past ( members of the People’s Union, for example) were in like Flynn because of their position on the slate. There is a category for individual election - only a few receive votes in such a quantity as to ensure direct election. Often they are at the top of the slate anyway - so why bother? The voter that cast his vote for, say, Lauri Vahtre, keynote speaker at Toronto’s Estonian Independence Day anniversary assembly was disappointed - Vahtre ranked too low on the Isamaaliit slate to gain a seat.
The number of candidates, 125 in a party slate for 101 seats - ridiculous! - adds to the simple voter’s confusion.

And the simple voter is precisely the one that the slick, teflon coated Edgar Elmaripoeg Savisaar addressed. Savisaar wooed the elderly and the poor - in Estonia, often one and the same. At the heart of the promises was improved social care - but how to pay for the increase in expenditures? Well, the Centre Party used snake oil to convince low-income Estonians that a new tax system should be imposed - to replace the present one-sheet flat-tax form. The flat-tax has been praised as being egalitarian, and one that is difficult to cheat on.
The strategy of the Centre Party was to distribute a glossy slide wheel to voters that would show how much less tax they would pay in such a graduated system, how much more wealthier Estonians would pay.

Toomas Hendrik Ilves, former Foreign Minister, and one of the few Moderates re-elected, scoffed at the proposed tax reform: “as the Center Party proposes it, it’s class hatred. It’s ‘screw the rich’”.

Ilves hit the nail on the head by referring to the class structure. Savisaar is referring to the Communist past with his promises, where pensions at least were enough to survive on. Yet, his brand of populism is offensive to most moderate Estonians.

The Res Publica platform had a much different approach to attaining social balance. By promising to reduce crime, and attempting to eradicate corruption (a problem that does not receive as much press as it should) the new party got the voter’s attention.

Cvonsider as well Savisaar’s history. Never mind his Communist Party membership, and place in history as the last Soviet Premier of Estonia. The Estonian Watergate scandal,where Savisaar -then as Interior Minister - taped conversations of his political opponents should be enough to discredit him entirely. This year, there were major questions about the sources of his campaign funds. Comparisons with Nixon have been drawn - right down to Savisaar’s raising his fingers in a “V” on his election posters. Savisaar’s political approach mirrors Nixon’s penchant for dirty tricks. Nixon resigned - as did Savisaar in 1995 - the former, however, never returned to political life. America would never have allowed it - why are Estonians lenient?

The answer is in that Edgar knows how to campaign, Soviet style, saying what people want to hear, promising everything to everybody. Impossible to deliver in a coalition government, however.

The Soviet system has left its impression - Edgar was number one on the Centre Slate, wife Vilja number two. Daughter Maria was lower on the slate, and did not gain election. The Center Party is run like a family business, indeed, Savisaar as mayor of Tallinn, uses the capital as his Centre party power base on a municipal level as well. (Another Estonian peculiarity - could you see Stephen Harper leading the Alliance while also serving as Calgary’s mayor?)

In the political horse-trading that is under way, the 60 centre-right parliamentarians, probably led by outgoing PM Siim Kallas, will push to form a government. While Kallas has his own dubious political baggage, he at least has international respect.

That is what Estonia needs to maintain. The present President of the country was also the last president of the Supreme Soviet. Savisaar was the last Soviet PM. If he were asked to be PM, the signs sent to the West would mean regression, rather than progress.

Finally: only 25.4%  of Estonian voters swallowed Savisaar’s bait. Sorry, even in a coalition government that does not give the politician with nine lives the right to lead the country. The next two weeks of jockeying should prove that the majority of Estonians do not see Savisaar, the power-hungry populist as the man to lead their country.

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