The Institute of Foreign Policy Analysis states in its June 2002 White Paper that Baltic membership may increase NATO's utility to U.S. interests.

The IFPA is a prestigious non-governmental thinktank, headquartered in Boston and Washington, that is often used by the U.S. Government, NATO and other groups. 

The study stresses that enlargement to the Baltic countries will first, overcome the Cold War division of Europe and second, solidify a new cooperative security relationship with Russia.

The Paper says that Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania could constitute the core of “new Atlanticists” that have a compelling interest in keeping the U.S. involved in European security.  It suggests they would ensure that collective defense remains the reason for NATO’s existence and resist “watering down” of the alliance into an OSCE-type political organization. 

The IFPA notes that the Baltic region is calm in terms of security, thus strategic costs of  NATO membership would be limited and operational consequences of their membership minimal. 

The Paper says Russia is not a short-term problem, but may remain a long-term source of concern.  However, it stresses the Baltics will be able to deal with that within the context of NATO1s Article Five guarantees.  It suggests that NATO membership will strengthen the Baltic countries and Russia in sorting out their post-Soviet relationships.  The paper lists as areas of possible Russian exploitation the large ethnic Russian communities, Kaliningrad and manipulation of energy supplies.  However, it says “the support of the Alliance and the backing of its security guarantee can embolden the Balts to handle Russia’s baiting and coercion more effectively.”

The IFPA says Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania can be significant in the role of thwarting terrorism, preventing the proliferation of nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction and drug-running.  It says membership will help intelligence sharing, thus enhancing the security of Alliance forces.

The Paper does dwell on “the worst-case scenario”, where Russia would revert to an openly antagonistic, anti-Western stance and thus pose a challenge to the Baltics. However, the now-unlikely scenario would bring into play NATO and U.S. forces.  It says it would initially include core warfighting capabilities such as strategic lift, rapid reaction forces, massed air-to-ground strikes and special operations forces.  It says the U.S. is likely to be the prime supplier of air support and SOF units.  The Paper also discusses the possible use of chemical, biological and tactical nuclear weapons.  It says those contingencies remain extremely remote, but must be discussed for the sake of realism and honesty.  It concludes, however, that the strategic benefits for the Baltic countries outweigh the majority of concerns for worst-case scenarios. 

The White Paper stresses that collectively, the three countries comprise a cohesive strategic space that is important for integrated air and missile defense operations. Thus it does not suggest picking just one, but all three, for membership. 

In conclusion, the paper notes that the United States “has exerted a  fair amount of political capital” to make Baltic membership in NATO a reality.  It says there have been allegations’of U.S. favoritism toward the Baltics by Alliance members and aspirants on Europe’s southern tier.  It is now, the paper says, for the Balts to return the favor and prove that indeed they are good members of the Euro-Atlantic family, ready and willing to contribute their resources and personnel to the defense of common interests.  The Paper lists three ways:

· they must continue to show the same enthusiasm and unity of effort once they are members of NATO, improving their militaries and defense planning, spending and operating in peace-keeping scenarios; · they must enhance their efforts to reach out to Russia with a confidence borne of the NATO security guarantee;

· and they must understand that, as NATO members, they have a meaningful voice in the debates and discussions of key NATO business.  The Balts can be an important voice for the development of an ever more effective NATO, onethat keeps collective defense as its core mission and the U.S. engaged in Europe.

Concluding Note: The IFPA White Paper on the Baltics strongly endorses NATO membership during this coming round of enlargement for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.  It shows the strong support of the United States.  But it also stresses the responsibilities of the three countries in turn.  They must live up to NATO expectations and not slacken off; they must be able to deal with their eastern neighbor without fear, from the security of the NATO umbrella.  Finally, they have a voice in creating the kind of afuture NATO that retains a strong collective defense. A NATO that will foster a free and united Euro-Atlantic community of nations that can engage a peaceful Russia and at the same time, feel secure in creating a free, peaceful and democratic life for their peoples.   

Vello Ederma is Chairman of the Joint Baltic American National Committee, Inc.

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