The IMF released its World Economic Outlook report last week, updating its April forecast. In April, Estonia was the only country in Europe where the real GDP growth was predicted to be negative (-0.5%), in October there are four other countries with negative GDP growth prediction. However, Estonia's GDP growth is still predicted to be the worst, -0.9%.
In its October forecast, the IMF estimates that global economic growth will be stable this year, but still lower than expected. Countries with developing economies have also been hit by various production and supply disruptions, civil unrest and extreme weather events. While the outlook for Europe, the United States and the Middle East has been lowered by the IMF, the forecast for Asia has been improved, as investments in the development of artificial intelligence increase the demand for electronics in China and India.
In five years, global economic growth is expected to reach 3.1 percent - still a mediocre result compared to the pre-pandemic average, the IMF estimates.
According to the IMF, real GDP - and thus the economy in general - will fall in four European countries this year: Ireland (-0.2%), Finland (-0.2%), Austria (-0.6%) and Estonia (- 0.9%). In both Latvia and Lithuania, the economy should grow this year, the IMF has forecasted real GDP growth there by 1.2% and 2.4%, respectively.
The euro area average is +1.7% and Malta is predicted by the IMF to have a real GDP increase of as much as 5 percent. Serbia (+3.9%) and Croatia (+3.4%) should also do well this year.