Since most observers have declared the invasion of Ukraine to be a disaster for Putin, could this foster his humiliating political demise, spur a palace takeover or force him to double down on slaughtering Ukrainians, a people he claims are intrinsically one with the Russian people?
So far after three weeks of unexpectedly slow progress in occupying Ukraine, his popularity hasn’t significantly suffered, even with the harsh sanctions that the West predicts will be real game changer. The facts about Russian military incompetence and the ruthless targeting of civilians have not reached the average Russian. One must also remember the immediate improvement in Putin’s low approval rate and the jubilation in the streets after he annexed Crimea in 2014. By 2015 his approval had risen to 81% in an outpouring of nationalistic zeal. Putin fully understands that taking over foreign territory by force seems to be quite acceptable to most Russians.
The ultra-nationalistic fervour he has been stoking for over two decades has paid off institutionally. Changes in legislation and the constitution, passed by servile lawmakers guarantee him ultimate powers until 2036.
Ukrainian intelligence has mentioned the possibility of his inner military/security circle removing him from power. Others observe that Putin has surrounded himself with a diminishing group of jingoistic war-hawks who bolster his fixation on Russia as a world superpower and who tell him only what he wants to hear.
Scholars point out that autocrats often find someone to blame when wars go badly. Thus, the fear of being named the fall guy could well drive people in Putin’s inner circle of military and security advisers to take him out to protect themselves. In fact, Ukrainian intelligence suggests that the head of the FSB, openly berated and humiliated for faulty intelligence assessments would be a likely choice as the new autocrat in the Kremlin.
But there are no indications that anxious and bullied security elite members are troubled enough to take any lead in eliminating Putin. Similarly, some of the entrenched technocrats are obediently trying to find ways to alleviate the hardships of the crippling sanctions. However, stories about oligarchs grumbling about serious threats to their fortunes have not made any discernible impact on Putin’s deadly single-mindedness.
(Pikemalt saab lugeda Eesti Elu 25. märtsi 2022 paber- ja PDF/digilehest)
