In so many ways the festivities surrounding the enlargement of the European Union are justified. It is a remarkable achievement for the accession countries, of whom only two, Cyprus and Malta, did not have a communist occupation past and a centrally planned collectivized economy to contend with. As the EU is first and foremost an economic amalgamation of willing nations, this is no small feat. However, euphoria should not rule the day, merely because accession requirements have been met.
Eurosceptics have the right to be concerned. There is ambivalence about enlargement both within the old member states and the new. Add to this outright opposition, Russian meddling, and it is clear that the European Union as a whole, will, after May 1st, have some Herculean tasks ahead.
Still, enlargement was not a step taken just for its own sake. For the first time since World War II, Europe is not divided. Real benefits should accrue for both old and new. History already has shown that the three previous EU enlargements changed the Union not in a negative, but positive direction.
Yet, the fears of those left on the outside looking in must be taken seriously. Sustaining stability on the borders of the EU should be a primary task. Maintaining peaceful relations is done best when there is economic stability.
What about the challenges? For certain, the new EU nations will face tough sledding in actually implementing Europe's laws. Come tomorrow, the day of accession, the entire body of EU laws and policies, known as the acquis communautaire enters force. The acquis is a body accumulated over the past half-century, and is the result thus of incremental adjustment of prior policy. No reason to expect that the acquis will remain static - as what exists today came as a result of protracted negotiation among the member states. As of tomorrow, then, all new EU nations will find themselves, in effect entirely transformed with regard to both the processes and outcomes of policy across virtually every domain. Virtually, because, as negotiations are wont to produce, transitional waivers have been fought for and received. These in examples such as movement of people, transfer of land, and institutional compliance.
As Italy and Finland showed this past week, at least two EU countries are not keen on having workers from the new EU enter their workforces before at least a two year transition period. Using merely this example - there are a lot more to choose from - serves to underscore that the transition period will out of necessity take time.
The biggest challenges will, not so ironically, be domestic, rather than within the framework of the EU. Countries must administer the acquis; keep on track with economic reform and transformation; reduce high unemployment (Estonia's is one of concern); deal with trade and current account deficits, and check inflation. That last bugbear is not always possible to contain domestically, as world history has amply demonstrated.
During this trying period, the difficulty of maintaining political support will be a stiff challenge for elected governments. Consider how difficult it is to cobble together; much less maintain, a coalition government - the form of rule to date in Estonia. And we have to allow for the fact that even though the Estonian EU referendum last September delivered 67 percent support, in real numbers only 40 percent of the electorate said Yes (in the sense of being sufficiently supportive to turn out and cast a positive ballot). 60 percent chose either to vote No or be apathetic, indifferent.
Ambivalence and apathy are one thing. Vocal opposition turned into voter outrage is another. Considering as well, that the leading opposition politician in Estonia has long been East-favouring Edgar Savisaar, and that it is the Russian minority in the country that is the most vocal, there may be grounds for some concern should the transition run into more snags than expected.
But enough about the tough trials ahead. There is ample evidence that Estonia will be able to continue on the path that led to EU membership. Adopting the euro should go smoothly. It will take time, but less than expected.
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According to a brand-new study by the World Economic Forum, published April 27th, Estonia is the most competitive among the countries joining the EU, exceeding even four of the present EU Member States - in fact outperforming G-7 member Italy! As Estonia's fiscal institutions rank among the best designed in the world, corruption is low, and the country's budget deficit is significantly below the 3 percent of GDP as required by the Maastrich Treaty, there is cause for confidence. Large economies such as Poland's will have a much more up-hill battle.
A final positive point is in the youth and energy that the new countries offer. On May 1, the population of the EU will increase by eighty million new citizens - a significant contribution to the EU's aging labour force. Estonia's Tiger Leap is youth oriented, most leading politicians, businesspeople are from the younger generation. The fears of a brain drain from the Baltics are unfounded - polls confirm that the young who wish to work or study abroad intend to return home. North Americans think little about working overseas - neither should Estonians. Home is where the heart is.
Perhaps the trump card that Estonia holds up the nation's collective sleeve is that of increased efficiency and competitiveness. The global ranking of sixth on the recent WSJ Index of Economic Freedom came honestly.
The successful experiences to date with economic reforms have made Estonia a competitive and efficient country. The challenges ahead in applying these skills in the EU are many. Governments may stumble. Pensioners may fret and worry. There will always be naysayers, those wishing to prick the balloon.
We'd rather use the metaphor of a star on the rise, than a balloon, which suggests a short life span. Estonia's star has risen into the EU's blue starry sky. Estonia will have her word to say in a constantly developing organization, whose success has been the capability of uniting very different states into a single functioning mechanism. Onwards, and upwards, tempering euphoria with reasoned optimism, and the understanding that much work lies ahead.
Leader: Tempered optimism
Arvamus
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