Martin has fulfilled the family destiny of desire to be prime minister - a destiny passed to him by his father who ran unsuccessfully for prime minister three times. He could now go back to running his huge shipping corporation after a respectable time in the backbenches.
"The time frame given for the leadership convention is either fall, spring but definitely before one year," said Tim Murphy, Chief of Staff for Martin.
The best way to tell if a person is running is how they waffle on the answer when asked the big question. If it isn't a definite yes or no, there is a possibility.
The next question is how many riding executives they can get on their side. These executives can vote for you and are very, very necessary.
The third requirement is money. About two million dollars would be required.
Frank McKenna, former premier of New Brunswick, recently Ambassador to the US, seemed the front runner in the leadership sweepstakes. A devoted Martinet (whoops, Martinite), he wouldn't run against Martin in 2004, out of loyalty. McKenna would have inherited the Martin riding organization, which swept the latter into office. McKenna has declared himself out of the running.
The French component of the front-running pair is Martin Cauchon, the Minister of Justice under former Prime Minister Jean Chrétien. The Liberals always exchange solitudes by going from English to French in order. This time it is French, unless Martin doesn't count as one turn. However, neither did Turner.
Chrétienite, former deputy prime minister, Minister for several portfolios, John Manley, considered a definite front runner, gave a definite, unequivocal no. He often clashed with Martin - so no chance of hopping on to the Martin riding machine.
The most recent Deputy Prime Minister, Minister and one who lost her seat (no puns intended) Ann MacLellan has left the door wide open. Where she would get her personpower and money from is another question.
The Sheila Copps theory was: run for leadership even if you haven't a possible chance, then fold near the end and get yourself a useless ministry. It worked, except with Martin.
Former NDP Ontario Premier Bob Rae has been considered a longshot, due to his bad performance at the helm of the province. He did, however, distinguish himself recently with the Air India Bombing Inquiry. (Which, however, has still not translated into any real results.) His brother is the Executive Vice President of Power Corp, which has owned more prime ministers than any other, and was Chrétien's campaign manager. When he was premier, Rae supported the Baltic States, monitoring the elections in Lithuania and donating over a million Ontario taxpayer dollars to Estonia, this despite being a NDP.
Professor Michael Ignatieff, former roommate of Rae, grandson of a Tsarist minister, who spent the last thirty years at Harvard, was parachuted (injected into the riding without benefit of a nomination process) into Etobicoke-Lakeshore much against the wishes of the Ukrainian riding association. He had also ticked off the Ukrainians by some of his comments about them in one of his many books. He used to be an assistant (along with Rae) of former Prime Minister Pierre Trudeau. He supports America's involvement in Iraq. He has been followed by rumours of the being the next prime minister, maybe not just this quickly, however, he, too, is also non-committal.
Another non-commitment came from Belinda Stronach, recently defected from the ranks of the Conservatives whose father is Frank Stronach of auto parts empire. She has money from her own family and might be able to put a riding machine together if they buy enough political talent. If she can pull enough women and immigrants (father is an immigrant-from-Austria-success-story) together, she will have a better opportunity (being a social liberal/economic conservative) than she had running for the leadership of the Conservative party, where she was up against the western Reform/Canadian Alliance (who are both social and economic conservatives).
Former federal minister of many portfolios Allan Rock is not running.
Former Newfoundland Premier Brian Tobin is not running.
Former Tory, former Minister of Public Works Scott Brison might run.
Former Defense Minister Bill Graham won't run but might become interim leader.
Minister of Women's Rights and Hockey Pucks Ken Dryden might run.
By the time this reaches you more might have bitten the dust or joined the race, but next week we'll talk about the new Tory cabinet. Keep your fingers crossed for Peter Van Loan.