Russian Defense Minister Sergei Ivanov is no shrinking violet. But perhaps not as smart as a military man should be. Ivanov chose July 28th, with American military personel in the area and the large hospital ship USNS Comfort in the Baltic Sea to address journalists in Kaliningrad about Russian “concerns” in the area. Ivanov seems to be living in the past, however. He told the assembled scribes that the Russians will continue to maintain a strong naval presence in the Baltic Sea. Of course, this to protect Kaliningrad from potential outside attacks. Ivanov further opined that the situation in the Baltic region may “destabilize” when the Baltics join NATO. How would it destabilize? Why, by Russia flexing muscles, of course, bringing her own brand of instability to the fore.
Köningsberg - the name that should be returned to Kaliningrad - is yet another anomaly left from the collapse of the Soviet Union - a militarily strategic oblast, whose only purpose was to keep Warsaw Pact members breathing their onion-laced breath towards NATO and free, western Europe. Historicaly either Polish or Lithuanian, the region is in some respects for Russians a West Berlin - although not land-locked, Russian citizens have to travel through Lithuania to reach Kaliningrad. Lithuania, then, is seen by Ivanov as a Checkpoint Charlie.
Ivanov’s bombast towards Lithuania is somewhat startling. Russian politicians have long moaned and bleated about the rights of Russian speakers in Estonia and Latvia being trampled on. They left Lithuannia alone, because that country, fortunately has in comparison a small Russian population. When Russia argued that before Estonia and Latvia should be allowed to join NATO and the EU they should “improve” the status of ethnis Russians, many European NGOs and governments listened, and some ignorant requests were made by people running these NGO’s “concerned” about Russian rights - as if they were being discriminated against on a state level. This was hardly the case, as has been stated many times in the press.
Ivanov’s twisted rhetoric intends to put pressure on Lithuania to provide for a visa free corridor through Lithuania for Russians. Which contravenes Schengen rules. Russia additionally is clearly threatening military sanctions, and may choose to apply some economic ones. Not that there are too many painful ones available. But the belligerence of the bear is the one of a blind and old one. Russia’s Baltic Fleet is rusty like much of Russia’s military - there is little military muscle to bring to any debate - peace-time or not.
Remember the Kursk - a Russian failure. Indeed, the Russians have only one aircraft carrier, the Kuznetsov, which out of necessity was used in the Kursk salvage operations. Yet, a flight wing has not taken off the deck of the aging carrier in training since 1998. The Kuznetsov is actually in shipyard for repairs, where it is expected to remain until 2004.
Money, and some serious design flaws with the vessel will almost certainly ensure that the carrier will see little sailing time. What is the point of having a carrier, if you cannot deploy airplanes from the middle of the sea? Although on paper the Russian fleet is second only to the U.S. it has nowhere near the training, finances, and battle-readiness of the Yanks, who prove time and time again their capacity for rapid reaction, whether preemptive or in defence.
Perhaps Ivanov reeived “liquid courage” from his boss, Vladimir Putin before spouting off. A day after the Kaliningrad press conference Putin demanded a “further restructuring” of Russian Armed Forces. That is a tired statement, oft-heard. But now Putin, according to Nezavisiyama Gazeta, expects his military to leap over two stages of combat readiness at once. Putin wants “permanent combat readiness units in all branches of the service”. An about face, if you will, marching in the opposite direction that “democratic Russia” has seen in reality. But Volodya wants to be like Dubya, who does have that luxury, as well as increased defense spending.
Chechnya, and threats in Georgia have shown the frailties of the former Red Army. It all has to do with finances - cuts are being made everywhere, equipment is aging. But increased funding is not the answer - the Russian military has been legendary for decades, centuries, for being extraordinarily wasteful. It was only the vast manpower resources that enabled them to repel Germans.
In final response to Ivanov - when the Baltic Sea Fleet has only one warship - and other fleets (Black, Northern and Pacific) can at best only muster up two functioning ones at a time - what kind of posturing can you do from rust buckets?
Although Putin is pro-West, the military’s stubborness, as expressed by Ivanov is not due to pride. It is an inbred Soviet approach - a futile attempt to thinly stretch the borders of reality, by keeping all Russian naval holdings functioning.
And there is no contentment in the ranks - conscripts do not wish to serve, Soviet trained senior officers are retiring at a rapid rate. What are Ivanov and Putin to do? With no officer cadre other than top-heavy generals? Increased spending and cutting waste are perhaps but the start. But with fears in Moscow of a repeat of the August 1998 economic crisis, roubles that already have been replaced by dollars may be hard to come by. Even though Putin has no visible opponents on the horizon in the upcoming presidential election, he and his Defense Minister will probably find much more support not by sabre-rattling and bombast but through economic reform, reduction of corruption, and eliminating asinine and alienating empty threats, that might once have had serious teeth.
Opinion: Bombast and sabre-rattling can backfire
Archived Articles | 07 Aug 2002 | EWR
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