In that great chess game of international diplomacy, Russian President Vladimir Putin has once agin demonstrated why Russians traditionally rule the sixty-four black and white squares. Indeed, his latest gambit in the troubled Central Asian region demonstrates how the grandmaster has not forgotten the rules of the game, and is heeding the lessons of the past. Scant months after supporting the American led coalition in the war against terrorism by allowing coalition troops into an area that is historically in Russia’s sphere of influence, the countries bordering Afganhistan, only a number of weeks after meeting President Bush on his own turf, oil-rich Texas, Putin is gambling on forming an alliance of his own in Central Asia. He made an announcement stating the need for such an alliance late last month after meeting with the president of Turkmenistan, Saparmurat Niyazov, a man who rules his oil-rich country with an iron fist. Ostensibly not as a reaction to the American military buildup in the area. Far from it, it is a matter of public record that the two former enemies are now bosom buddies, Bush has peered into Putin’s soul after all. Rather, Putin wants to protect access to the regions vast energy resources, the natural gas and oil deposits in the region are a source of considerable wealth. North Americans have already benefitted at the pumps in recent months, as Russia, not a member of the OPEC cartel, to the chagrin of the Arabs, has increased exports of oil, thus reducing world prices. Oil and gas have always been an important source of foreign revenue for Russia, in the days of the Soviet Union debts to countries such as Finland were often paid in kind with Siberian gas. However, now Putin and his energy ministry are openly concerned that the A mericans are in the region solely to uphold the economic interest of US companies, who, you guessed it, care only about petroleum and gas, not democracy and freedom. The bottom line is to be found at the North American gas pumps where fuel is plentiful, cheaper than in the rest of the world, and in heavy demand. A natural bonanza for the big petroleum distilling companies. It brings to mind one of Yogi Berra’s famous malapropsisms - it’s just like deja vu all over again. Charges were made during the Gulf War that the only reason Americans launched Operation Desert Storm was to protect it’s business interests. There is also an even older, historical precedent, going back to the 19th century in the Central Asian region. Then, imperalist Russia and capitalist America jockeyed for control of the Caspian region, in what was known as the “Great Game”. At the time one half of the world’s petroleum came from the region, generating vast fortunes to among others, the Rockefeller and Nobel dynasties. After the collapse of Imperial Russia the Soviet Union successfully plundered the regions natural resources for seven decades. On the other side of the coin, adding fuel to Putin’s fire, American Vice President Dick Cheney is on record as stating that the Caspian region is of extreme strategic significance to the American oil industry. US oilmen have a $30 billion investment in Central Asia for precisely this reason, giving them 30 billion reasons to lobby for American military strength in the area. Thus it is fair to say that Putin’s calculated step to protect vested interests in the region is more than mere jingoism. As with most political moves it is predicated by economics. The Russian press is stirring up their readers about the potential conflict, reminding them among other issues how fast victorious partners in WW II became bitter enemies during the Cold War. Should the Americans succeed in renewing their historic plans of building a pipeline through Afghan territory, scuttled by the emergence of the Taliban regime, it is certain that the situation will become intensely confrontational, likely to provoke some stand-off that will not be easily resolved. It remains to be seen whether Putin’s public strategy gamble will pay dividends. An oil-hungry nation like the USA will not pass up any option to feed itself. Negotiations in the months to come, no matter how that other great game, being fought by the military ends, will certainly provide the grandmasters of international diplomacy, playing on the petroleum chessboard with plenty of moves and countermoves, gambits and sacrifices, all with the goal of winning a game that has significant long-term global ramifications. TÕNU NAELAPEA
Putin’s gambit
Archived Articles | 13 Feb 2002 | EWR
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