TALLINN, (STINA): Why is it helpful to remember who was who years ago? Because, as the saying goes, old love never dies. Suppose there are two friends who were once both in the Young Communist League ("Komsomol"), trained as future successors of those in power, and later both joined the ranks of new-thinkers in the Communist Party. Suppose that now, when the old regime collapsed and freedom came, one of them has become a leader of a 'reform party' and the other is a well-known anti-reformer - does this matter? Certainly not. They may at any time fool everyone by shaking hands at a most unexpected moment. That is what has happened in Estonia of late. The notable anti-reformer is the Centre Party's chairman Edgar Savisaar. In his twenties he was a leader of the Building Brigades of School Youth. In his thirties he received a degree in Marxist philosophy. During perestroika he became a leader of the Popular Front, a member of the Supreme Soviet and, finally, the head of the last puppet government under the Soviet regime. He was a die-hard fighter against the idea to restore the independent Republic of Estonia on the basis of legal continuity. He is disliked by most Estonian politicians for his authoritarian manners. In 1992 he made an attempt to establish the state of economic emergency but his government fell since his own ministers initiated the government's resignation. In 1995 he was offered the office of home minister in another government that fell soon amidst the scandal of the home minister having secretly videotaped other members of the cabinet. The Reform Party's chairman Siim Kallas is also a 'perestroika communist'. As a young man he was also active in the Building Brigades of Student Youth. In 1987 Savisaar and Kallas were co-authors of the plan named 'Economically Independent Estonia' (IME) calling for limited economic autonomy. In 1989 both joined the marionette parliament, the Supreme Soviet. An economist, Kallas was later appointed President of the Bank of Estonia. The new currency, stable and hard, made him popular. In 1994 he founded the Reform Party.

SLIPPING DOWN FROM CENTRE-RIGHT TO CENTRE LEFT

The Reform Party, with its 19 seats in the 101-seat parliament, became a promotor of interests of both old and young generations of apolitically minded active newly rich people seeking for success. Whether apolitical or not, the new party had to take a stand in the political scenery. Since the times of the 'singing revolution', the Estonian landscape has remained divided between the two poles: there are old-thinking lefties who call themselves 'centrists' and there are centrist reformists calling themselves 'centre-right'. Shuffling somewhere in between are all others including 'country people's parties' and 'Russian parties'. The reformists chose to become an ally of the centre-right - the Pro Patria Union (18 seats) and the Moderates (17 seats). This tripartite coalition won the March 1999 general elections and took office. However, the Reform Party constantly upset its government partners. It torpedoed the railway privatisation: while the government planned to carry this out step by step, with State subsidies at the first stages, the Reform Party's MPs broke the agreement by voting, together with the Centre Party's MPs, against the package. The result was devastating: railway traffic stopped because of scanty financing. The communication with south-west counties was paralysed for months, with everyone putting the blame on the coalition leader - the Pro Patria Union. Again, it was the Reform Party whose representatives in the parliament sunk the draft law on crimes committed by the communist regime. And, again, it was the Reform Party whose ministers sabotaged the reform of local government, whose MPs voted against the law on electronic ID-cards, who broke the agreement to run a joint candidate at the presidential elections, and so on. The final row started when the reformists began secretly entering talks and forming alliances with the Centre Party in a number of local governments. In December, the Reform Party left its long-time partners to form a coalition with the centrists in the capital city of Tallinn. With the help offered by Kallas, Edgar Savisaar was elected Mayor of Tallinn. That was the last straw: reformists lost any trust as a coalition partner. The next day the Prime Minister Mart Laar told the parliament he would resign in January after the parliamentary recess is over, and did so. On January 8th he handed his resignation to the president.

NEW GOVERNMENT - NEW PRIORITIES? Mart Laar's decision was well-timed as the budget for 2002 had already been adopted in the parliament. His step pushed the Reform Party into the centrists' arms: the fresh allies had nothing left to do but to jointly form the new government, even if their programmes have nothing in common. By impeding each other's initiatives the new partners may 'lose their face'. (Appearance of independent platform. Ed.) By joining the centrists, the reformists demonstrate the voter that they are not the proper advocates of centre-right values. Until now, the Pro Patria Union and the Reform Party shared some part of electorate. With about a year left until the next general election, the reformists will lose those voters who previously had a difficulty in making difference between the two parties. Although the strongest coalition partner is the Centre Party with its 29 seats in the parliament, the job of Prime Minister was taken by Siim Kallas. He became the head of a minority government, since the new coalition is supported by only 48 deputies in the parliament. Kallas was readily stamped by the media as "a PM in the Savisaar's government". The latter's decision to continue as Mayor of Tallinn is explained in the parliament lobby by greater opportunities to handle finances. With the Centre Party in office, the question arises: what will be the possible priorities of the new government? The threats to the security of Estonian nation posed by the centrists' goals have often been pointed out. They did not favour the restoration of property rights violated by the Soviet regime. Neither are they concerned about securing the positions of Estonian language and the citizenship. The Centre Party is ready to make concessions to the Russians who do not have the knowledge of Estonian language, and grant them citizenship unconditionally. This might turn the Estonian political boat upside-down: the clock would return to the times of the last Supreme Soviet when the puppet parliament was a battleground of Estonian and Russian interests - a perfect situation for Savisaar with his authoritarian manners. In internal affairs, the Centre Party has been seeking to introduce a proportional tax. In international relations, Savisaar has never set his priorities clearly. But, notably, he never called the accession to the European Union and NATO his priorities. However, notwithstanding the twist to the left made by Estonia, with the former communist Arnold Rüütel elected this fall as president and the Centre Party now in the government, changes are unlikely to happen. The new government has a limited playground. It takes the office for a short term. Its predecessor, the trilateral government, has laid the priorities in the home and foreign policy that would be hard to revise. There is a wide consensus that Estonia must remain a West-oriented, open and investor friendly country. By now, with its fast and timely structural reforms, stringent budget policy and low corruption, Estonia has risen to fourth place among 155 countries in the Index of Economic Freedom. It is among the first candidates for accession to the European Union and is waiting for invitation to join NATO. With the new government, some processes may slow down at the most but there is no chance of a U-turn. The Centre Party cannot even change the current flat tax system because it would go against the interests of its coalition partner. The Reform Party's chairman Meelis Atonen said, "We will not agree to the graduated rate tax, and we will say no to budget deficit and excessive costs". The only risk might come from the home policy, as Russian-friendly minded Savisaar may seek to enfranchise the aliens so as to change the composition of the parliament. But this, too, is impossible for a minority government. (STINA is the network of Independent Journalists for Central and Eastern Europe. Valeri Kalabugin is their Baltic correspondent. This article appeared in Issue no 257, January 25, 2002)

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