Moscow has apparently chosen Poland as a ground for testing the European Union’s common energy policy. In ongoing negotiations for a new supply agreement, Gazprom seeks to pressure Poland to circumvent or breach the EU’s legislation on energy market liberalization (Third Energy Package, 2009). Russia opposes these anti-monopoly measures. Failure to implement them consistently in Poland would leave the country dependent on Gazprom. It would also compromise the EU legislation from this early stage, setting a precedent that Gazprom could duplicate in other countries, whether in new or old members of the EU.
Exploiting Polish short-term vulnerabilities, Gazprom seeks to frustrate the implementation of EU law and saddle Poland with long-term disadvantages through the proposed supply agreement. With the heating season now starting, Gazprom apparently is waiting for Warsaw to grow nervous and concede. The latest negotiating round, on September 24 in Moscow, has only resulted in scheduling further negotiations to be held in October. While some interested parties in Poland seem disappointed, the delay offers Warsaw a chance to reassess this poorly negotiated draft agreement, and consult with Brussels to avoid the traps therein.
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